As winter approaches, South Africa faces a drier-than-usual season, particularly in the South-Western parts of the country.
Christien Engelbrecht, Lead Scientist at the South African Weather Service, said that while winter is the rainfall season for the southwestern parts of the country, this winter of 2025 is likely to be drier than normal.
“Predictions indicate enhanced probabilities for below-normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be above-normal during this period,” she said.
Engelbrecht explained that South Africa is expected to experience neutral ENSO conditions during the winter.
"The influence of ENSO over South Africa is mostly restricted to the mid-summer months and the summer rainfall region.
“This means that neither El Niño nor La Niña will have a significant impact on the winter weather this year.”
She warned that reduced rainfall could impact water storage levels in areas that rely on winter rains.
“The South-Western parts of the country rely on rainfall for water storage purposes," adding that "if the predicted below-normal rainfall occurs, water storage can be negatively impacted."
As for agriculture, Engelbrecht noted that the current water storage levels are good, but a drier winter could present challenges later in the year.
"In the case that rainfall during this winter is below-normal, challenges can occur from the summer and during the climatologically hottest part of the year when irrigation needs are high," she said.
Explaining the underlying reasons for this winter’s forecast, Engelbrecht stated: "Drier and wetter seasons are part of climate variability.
“The two preceding winters had good rainfall over the winter rainfall region, and now the prediction for 2025 is for the winter to be likely drier than normal."
As the Western Cape prepares for the upcoming winter season, Melt Botes, spokesperson for the Department of Infrastructure, outlined the department's efforts to address potential challenges posed by heavy rainfall and storms.
Botes emphasised that each user department is responsible for ensuring that their buildings are properly maintained.
“We encourage all user departments to check gutters where leaves and debris may have accumulated, as blocked gutters can lead to internal building damage."
Regarding road repairs, Botes assured that all routes are accessible, except for Montagu Pass and Seven Passes Road in the Garden Route District, where alternative routes are available.
Botes explained that some damage required specialized engineering solutions.
“The implementation, due to cost and the various processes including approvals etc. involved will take multiple financial years. The strategy is always first to ensure safety, then to restore access, followed by temporary repairs and then permanent repairs.
On the topic of safety, Botes highlighted the importance of personal responsibility: "Road users must adjust their behaviour according to prevailing weather conditions, while the department's routine maintenance activities, including clearing stormwater structures and culverts, are vital.”
Botes also pointed out that the department cannot always be held accountable for situations where external factors intervene.
"For example, the flooding of the N1 in Cape Town was due to the adjacent wetland breaching its berm, not a failure of our systems," said Botes.
Botes further acknowledged the role of other agencies, stating, "We thank the Western Cape Mobility Department’s Traffic Law Enforcement directorate, who are often first responders in closing roads to ensure public safety until our teams can clear the debris."
In response to concerns about water systems, Botes explained that the department continues to maintain its drainage infrastructure to handle increased water flow.
However, Botes stressed that maintaining wetlands and other natural features is equally important. "The flooding of the N1 was an example of a scenario where the drainage system was functioning properly, but the wetland, which is outside our control, breached its berm, resulting in the flooding."
Weekend Argus