WHO to Latin America: Covid-19 deaths could quadruple by October

FILE - In this Monday, June 22, 2020 file photo a cemetery employee works in a section where COVID-19 victims were buried at the Sao Luiz cemetery in Sao Paulo, Brazil. For months, experts have warned of a potential nightmare scenario: After overwhelming health systems in some of the world's wealthiest regions, the coronavirus gains a foothold in poor or war-torn countries ill-equipped to contain it and sweeps through the population. (AP Photo/Andre Penner, File)

FILE - In this Monday, June 22, 2020 file photo a cemetery employee works in a section where COVID-19 victims were buried at the Sao Luiz cemetery in Sao Paulo, Brazil. For months, experts have warned of a potential nightmare scenario: After overwhelming health systems in some of the world's wealthiest regions, the coronavirus gains a foothold in poor or war-torn countries ill-equipped to contain it and sweeps through the population. (AP Photo/Andre Penner, File)

Published Jun 30, 2020

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BRASILIA/MEXICO CITY - The toll from

Covid-19 could rise to 438,000 deaths in Latin America by

October if prevention measures are not kept up, the World Health

Organization's regional director for the Americas Carissa

Etienne warned on Tuesday.

Fatalities so far in Latin America have reached 113,844 or

almost one fifth of the number of people who have died globally,

according to mapping by Reuters.

The Americas is the world epicenter of the coronavirus

pandemic and the toll for the whole region could almost treble

to 637,000 by October 1, the WHO official said, though she

cautioned that mathematical model projections should not be

taken literally but only as planning guides.

Under current conditions, the pandemic is expected to peak

in Chile and Colombia by mid-July, but in Argentina, Brazil,

Bolivia and Peru not until August, and Costa Rica will not

flatten its curve of infection until October, she said.

Countries, states and cities that relax restrictions too

soon can be flooded with new Covid-19 cases, Etienne and other

directors of the WHO's regional branch, the Pan American Health

Organization said in a virtual briefing from Washington.

"Complacency is our enemy in the fight against Covid-19,"

she said, adding: "The battle is tough but it's far from lost."

In the United States, Washington state and New York are

seeing very low numbers of new cases and deaths, but 27 other

states are reporting exponential growth, Etienne said.

Several Caribbean countries and territories were able to

curb transmission completely and have reported no new cases for

several weeks, but they need to remain vigilant for months to

come, Etienne said.

This past week Manaus, in Brazil saw its first day without

reporting new deaths from Covid-19, after weeks of dealing with

high mortality in the largest city in the Amazon.

Brazil has the second most fatal and widespread outbreak in

the Americas after the United States and WHO directors said they

have repeatedly asked the South American country to increase

testing and have a consistent message to population.

Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro has downplayed the gravity

of coronavirus and criticized quarantine and social distancing

measures adopted by states and cities, sending a confusing

signal to Brazilians, public health experts say.

Countries must be prepared to adjust course quickly if the

epidemiological situation changes, the WHO director said.

Reopening is not merely a question of suspending travel

restrictions and stay-at-home orders. It requires ample testing

and adequate contact tracing to quickly detect and control new

outbreaks, she said.

The Americas region as a whole reported 5.1 million cases

and more than 247,000 deaths due to COVID-19 as of June 29.

Reuters

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